15 July 2009

SproutWatch July

The green shoots are wilting before our eyes. Even in the press the sprouts are harder to find. My traffic lights this month are unchanged:

Banking crisis: The index (the spread of 3 month sterling LIBOR over the policy rate) is down to 54bp from 76bp last month. The target is 10bp. The banking crisis is far from over.

Debt/demand crisis: The index (economic growth forecast for 2010) is 1.1% up from 0.6% last month. To be on track for recovery it should be upwards of 2%. The recovery is still some way off.

Trade crisis: My trade index is 5.9% down from 6.3%. (The index sums the deficits and surpluses of four major trading economies and divides by their combined GDP.) Looking up, but the recession is cutting the level of trade. We need to watch what happens when the recovery begins.

For more information on the indices see the small print here.

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